The Development of ProbSevere v3 - An improved nowcasting model in support of severe weather warning operations

ProbSevere is a ML model that utilizes NWP, satellite, radar, and lightning data to nowcast severe wind, severe hail, and tornadoes. ProbSevere, which was transitioned to NWS operations in October 2020, is a proven tool that enhances operational severe weather warnings. This project aims to develop the next version of ProbSevere, ProbSevere v3. ProbSevere v3 utilizes additional data sets and improved machine learning techniques to improve upon the operational version of ProbSevere. ProbSevere v3 was successfully demonstrated in the 2021 Hazardous Weather Testbed and a JTTI proposal was recently submitted to facilitate an operational update. The development is funded by GOES-R.